Monsoon extremes are likely to increase over India and South Asia, while the frequency of short intense rainy days are expected to rise, an IPCC report on climate change said on Monday.
Models also indicate a lengthening of the monsoon over India by the end of the 21st century, with the South Asian Monsoon precipitation projected to increase, said the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, approved by 195 member countries.
“Experiments with constant forcing indicate that at 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees Celsius global warming levels, mean precipitation and monsoon extremes are projected to intensify in summer over India and South Asia,” the report said.
“CMIP5 models project an increase in short intense active days and decrease in long active days, with no significant change in the number of break spells for India,” the report said.
Rainfalls, floods and droughts will also increase. Droughts will occur more because soil will lose moisture. Due to an increase in temperature, there will be more water evaporation which will in turn decrease soil moisture and lead to droughts, R Krishnan, Executive Director, Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Research and one of the co-authors of the report said.
The report states that there has been new evidence of the effect of local land use and land cover change on heavy precipitation.
There is a growing set of literature linking increases in heavy precipitation in urban centres to urbanisation.
Urbanisation intensifies extreme precipitation, especially in the afternoon and early evening, over the urban area and its downwind region, the report said.
India has been witnessing rapid urbanisation over the last few decades.
The Southwest Monsoon contributes to over 70 per cent of rainfall of the country and is a prime driver of the economy which is still largely dependent on agriculture.
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